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Bitcoin Halving 2024: Will Crypto Miners See Lower Profits?


The upcoming Bitcoin halving, which will occur on or around April 16, has, as expected, sparked widespread discussion within the cryptocurrency community regarding where the Bitcoin price could head in the aftermath.

As the event draws near, crypto investors and analysts are also assessing the potential impact on the profitability of Bitcoin mining.

Bitcoin Mining Profits After Halving

Analysts at JPMorgan said in a note this week that the halving event could have “sweeping implications” for the Bitcoin mining industry.

“All else equal, the halving will cut industry revenues in half, triggering a wave of consolidation and business closures, while (hopefully) rationalizing the network hashrate and industry capex, which is ultimately good for the remaining operators,” stated JPMorgan.

The investment bank estimates that industry-wide gross profits, currently about $2.5 billion per quarter, will decline 30% to 40%, with the network hashrate declining as much as 80 EH/s (or 13%) peak to trough.

The block reward, which makes up the overwhelming majority of mining revenues, will be cut in half on or around April 16th, according to Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) estimates.

“Post-halving, we estimate one exahash of mining capacity will generate ~$50k in daily block rewards (vs ~$100k today), which would be the lowest level since at least Jan ˕21,” highlighted JPM analysts.

“That said, some believe transaction fees, which historically accounted for a low single-digit percentage of mining revenue, could increase post-halving due to network upgrades that allow more data to be saved on the Bitcoin blockchain, which could partially offset the smaller block reward.”

Furthermore, Neutral-rated CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK) was cited as “best positioned from an ‘optics’ perspective,” as it enjoys the lowest all-in cost per coin in JPMorgan’s coverage universe, at $35,000, and is “on track to report record revenue and gross profits post-halving, due to favorable hashrate compares.”

On the other hand, despite having the lowest energy prices of any publicly traded operator, the bank believes Neutral-rated Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR) is “worst positioned from an optics’ perspective,” given tough hashrate compares and relatively high overhead expenses.

While JPMorgan notes that Bitcoin typically rallies post-halving, they state that the reaction isn’t immediate, explaining that Bitcoin appreciated, on average, 11%, 59%, 262%, and 419% in the three, six, nine, and twelve months following the last two halvings due to perceived scarcity.

“That said, no two halvings are the same, and bitcoin has appreciated more 56% YTD and more than 150% over the past year,” cautioned JPMorgan.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, told Investing.com that “quadrennial Bitcoin halving can dramatically affect mining profitability, especially for those operating with less efficient rigs or higher electricity costs.”

“Historically, the hash rate (the total computational power dedicated to mining and processing transactions) dips after a halving as unprofitable miners disconnect, but it tends to recover within weeks.

“We believe the halving will likely lead to consolidation within the mining industry, with smaller miners being squeezed out and larger players expanding their market share. However, this trend is already in place, as publicly traded miners now control as record % of the hash rate. Historically, Bitcoin mining equities recover strongly post-halving and outperforms the spot price in halving years,” Sigel added.

What Is Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin Halving is a process that occurs every four years, where the rate and rewards for mining Bitcoin are reduced by half. The purpose of this event, introduced by Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto, is to regulate the production of Bitcoin and keep the digital currency deflationary.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024

Speaking at the Bitcoin Investor Day in New York in March, Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, provided his insights on why he thinks Bitcoin is likely to continue trending higher.

Novogratz highlighted concerns over government spending and borrowing, saying he sees Bitcoin as benefiting from the US’s fiscal indiscipline.

“What’s the macro story for Bitcoin?” said Novogratz. “It’s relatively simple. Our government can’t keep its pants on and stop spending money.”

“Until you see a government, both Dems and Republicans, that says ‘enough,’ bitcoin’s going to keep going higher,” Novogratz added.

Earlier in March, Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, said Bitcoin will “climb the wall of worry.” He believes the bitcoin rise is “still just getting started.”

“Have conviction, take your coins into self-custody if you can, and enjoy the greatest game the markets have ever seen,” Thorn concluded.

Today’s Crypto Market Cap

The current cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.57 trillion. Bitcoin is, of course, the leader, with a market cap of $1.37 trillion, at the time of writing. It currently trades above the $70,000 mark.

Meanwhile, Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, has a market cap of $407.76 billion, with the crypto currently at $3,515.

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