Home Investing News IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast

IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast


Investing.com – The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth earlier Wednesday, citing weak demand in developed OECD nations, in particular in Europe.

The Paris-based organization, in its monthly oil report, lowered its growth outlook for this year by 140,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd, and marginally lifted its 2025 oil growth forecast to 1.2 million bpd.

The IEA said its lower 2024 oil demand forecast was linked to weak economic growth, particularly in Europe, where a declining share of diesel cars was already undercutting consumption.

“Combined with weak diesel deliveries in the United States at the start of the year, this was enough to tip OECD oil demand in the first quarter back into contraction,” the IEA said.

This puts the IEA demand forecast further at odds with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, after the group of major producers on Tuesday stuck by its expectation that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024.

“The health of global oil demand will likely be a key topic for discussion when OPEC+ ministers meet in Vienna on 1 June to chart production policy for the remainder of the year,” IEA said, in its note.

“Despite the recent weakness, our current balances show the call on OPEC+ crude oil at around 42 million bpd in the second half of this year – roughly 700,000 bpd above its April output.”

The agency also lifted its forecast for world oil supply by 580,000 bpd this year to a record 102.7 million b/d, seeing non-OPEC+ output rising by 1.4 million b/d while OPEC+ production is seen falling 840,000 b/d, assuming that voluntary cuts are maintained. 

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