The US dollar’s recent downtrend halted, aligning with forecasts by financial institution ING. Analysts observed that US economic data has not provided sufficient momentum to drive a significantly weaker dollar at this time.
This comes after jobless claims dropped to 222,000 from a previous week’s increase to 232,000. The labor market had shown similar patterns in January, with claims peaking at 225,000 before falling back to the range of 200,000 to 210,000.
ING anticipates a potential stabilization in USD currency pairs as investors await the release of the April core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, scheduled for May 31. The firm suggests that cross-asset volatility could remain subdued in the coming weeks, which may boost the search for carry trades.
Consequently, they express a lack of optimism for a recovery in the Japanese yen, currently deemed the most attractive funding currency.
In related developments, China’s latest economic figures influenced market sentiment. The country reported a 6.7% year-on-year increase in April industrial production, surpassing the expected 5.5%.
However, retail sales underperformed, registering a 2.3% growth against a forecasted 3.7%. According to ING’s economist, the data reflects ongoing caution among households and the private sector in China.
The US economic calendar for today includes the Leading Index, which is anticipated to have remained at -0.3% in April. Additionally, Federal Reserve officials Chris Waller, Neel Kashkari, and Mary Daly are scheduled to speak. ING forecasts the dollar index (DXY) to trade within the 104-105 range in the near term.
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