Home Editor's Picks Trump conviction is a non-factor in election: strategists

Trump conviction is a non-factor in election: strategists


Donald Trump guilty verdict on charges of falsifying business documents is unlikely to affect his presidential campaign significantly, according to strategists at Capitol Economics.

This is because the resilience Trump has demonstrated in the past, notably surviving two impeachment attempts, indicates that this legal setback may not derail his political aspirations, the strategists said.

“Trump isn’t going to prison for covering up a hush money payment that, technically, amounted to an illegal campaign contribution,” they said.

Capitol Economics points out that despite this, Trump also faces potential federal and state trials for retaining classified documents and election interference.

However, the firm notes that none of these trials have scheduled start dates and could be postponed until after the upcoming presidential election.

In the wake of the conviction, betting markets continue to favor Trump narrowly over Joe Biden for the November election victory.

Capitol Economics finds this outlook reasonable, considering Trump’s polling edge in key swing states.

“We see the New York trial as the least likely of the Trump trials to impact the election, given that voters are more inclined to look past a hush money conviction than other more serious charges,” Evercore ISI policy strategists wrote.

“We think this still holds. However, in a close election, even a tiny shift in attitudes can matter,” they concluded.

Related News