Investing.com — The latest Sevens Report issued a warning, stating that markets are currently facing “tectonic risks” that could pose significant threats over time.
Sevens acknowledged a sense of disbelief among some investors who were surprised by the resilience of stocks, despite mounting political uncertainty and a clearly slowing economy.
According to Sevens, while there are visible warning signs—including rising unemployment, weak manufacturing data, and negative bank guidance—the overall news isn’t “bad enough yet to cause a sustainable decline in stocks.”
However, they pointed out that the macro risks are real, with political uncertainty (particularly around potential elections), economic ambiguity (whether there will be a soft or hard landing), and geopolitical tensions (including Russia/Ukraine and the situation in Taiwan) looming large.
However, “potential risks and anecdotal negatives, while all legitimate, and not yet enough to distract investors from positive factors in this market,” they wrote.
They believe factors such as the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, expected earnings growth, and sustained enthusiasm around artificial intelligence have been supporting the market.
The analysts stated that “the burden of proof remains with the bears” as these positive elements keep stocks buoyant for now.
However, the report emphasized that while markets could “grind higher” in the short term, with the potential for the S&P 500 to hit new highs, they remain exposed to “dramatic negative shocks” that could result in a significant 10%-20% decline.
“Bottom line, the risks currently facing this market (economic growth, earnings, geopolitics) are tectonic risks. They don’t present themselves all at once or in a flash, they evolve over time until they become sustainable and that’s when bear markets occur,” said Sevens.
“This market is facing those risks but facing them doesn’t mean they’ll happen. That’s why closely monitoring these risks while not prematurely abandoning the long side is the right way to navigate this market.”
