Investing.com — Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s share price has fallen 2% premarket after TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said the iPhone 16 series first-weekend pre-order sales are estimated to be around 37 million units, down about 12.7% from last year’s iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales.
According to the analyst, the key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series. The analyst attributes this to the delayed release of Apple Intelligence and ongoing competition in the Chinese market.
Despite the YoY decline in iPhone 16 Pro first-weekend pre-order sales, the analyst says “the supply chain’s production plans are unlikely to change significantly in the near term,” with Apple having opportunities to enhance sales through the release of Apple Intelligence and peak season promotions.
Elsewhere on Monday, analysts at Jefferies and Citi said initial demand for Apple’s iPhone 16 series appears underwhelming.
Both investment banks are tracking pre-order data and delivery lead times, with early signs suggesting that consumer enthusiasm for the new devices is not as strong as last year.
Jefferies noted that iPhone 16 Pro Max models sold out quickly in China, but delivery times of 2-3 weeks haven’t lengthened, indicating stable supply rather than surging demand.
In the U.S., Jefferies reported weaker-than-expected interest, with iPhone 16 Pro models available for store pickup just days after pre-orders began.
“The U.S. is much weaker than last year, unless Apple massively increased supply allocation,” Jefferies said, adding that it’s uncertain if the relatively short delivery times are due to supply overestimation or weak demand.
Furthermore, Jefferies pointed out that subsidies from platforms like JD (NASDAQ:JD).com and Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD) may have skewed the demand picture. While weak initial demand could weigh on Apple’s supply chain, Jefferies believes “rising ASP could offset volume weakness for AAPL, but may be less so for the supply chain, which depends more on volume.”
Citi’s observations were similar, with the bank tracking delivery times across multiple markets.
Citi analysts stated that Pro Max models have the longest wait times, followed by Pro models, reflecting a trend towards higher-end options.
However, they highlighted that the delivery times for the iPhone 16 models are about a week shorter on average compared to last year’s iPhone 15 launch.
“The delivery time is the longest for Pro Max models, followed by Pro, showing continued trend of premiumization,” Citi said, as consumers increasingly opt for more expensive models with larger storage capacities.
“Compared with last year’s first day of pre-order of iPhone 15, the delivery time is on average a week shorter for iPhone 16,” concluded Citi.
